I haven’t tested but I’m pretty sure the data would be there. The databases containing them are after all just files.
That done not mean that it would restore correctly, of course.
If you had your client set to delete your messages from the server after you downloaded them, you’d lose any downloaded since the last backup. If you left them on the server, they might or might not re-download.
Making a backup using Deltachat’s internal UI, and using it to add the new iPhone as a second device, would be reliable, and would certainly get all the missed messages (in the last month or so) from the server.
If you were willing to test macOS’s backups, using a DC backup as a backup-backup, then posting the results here would be really useful to others with the same question.
Today I tested backup/restore and app offloading on an iPhone (older model, maybe 7 or 8, but with the latest software updates it can receive as of this morning). Delta Chat was installed and in use, with no secondary devices created for the identity. I used the Settings → General → Erase Phone process to completely erase the phone as if I would sell it, and then logged back in and restored from iCloud backups. Delta Chat was restored to the same functioning state with the original identity and chats intact.
Then I went to Settings → General → iPhone Storage to “offload” the Delta Chat app data, effectively uninstalling it without losing the data. When I opened it again, it restored the offloaded data and it worked as before.
On another iPhone, my friend did a test where she uninstalled the app and then tried to restore it, but we learned that the Apple restore functionality does not work for individual apps: if you want to restore an app you deleted, you have to restore the entire device from an iCloud backup. Fortunately this scenario is less problematic because it is pretty clear when you uninstall an app that its data will be deleted, and if it were important enough to someone, it would be worth restoring the entire device from iCloud backup to recover their Delta Chat identity.
For extra points, one might also check if WebXDC (mini app) cache (web data) also restores.
(But generally WebXDC apps should be designed such that they can survive a cache reset)